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Professor Graham Medley

Professor of Infectious Disease Modelling

United Kingdom

I joined LSHTM in April 2015. I am an infectious disease modeller, and a former director of CMMID. I work a 3-day week.

My overall interest is the transmission dynamics of infectious disease, and I have published on many different pathogens and hosts - see [Google] or [ORCID] or [ResearcherID] for full lists. I am currently a member of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) modelling consortium.

I have been on an expert group in the Infected Blood Inquiry. From 2017-2023 I was chair of SPI-M (the pandemic preparedness committee in UK Department of Health), and 2020-2022 I chaired the SPI-M-O modelling subgroup of SAGE which provided evidence to the UK COVID-19 response.

Affiliations

Department of Global Health and Development
Faculty of Public Health and Policy

Centres

Centre for Evaluation
Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
Antimicrobial Resistance Centre

Teaching

I contribute to modules on NTD and Decision Making, and supervise projects.

Research

I am interested in all things infectious. I have projects relating to COVID-19, NTD and HIV.
Research Area
Epidemiology
Mathematical Modelling
Disease and Health Conditions
Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs)
Infectious diseases

Selected Publications

A spatio-temporal approach to short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India.
NIGHTINGALE, ES; CHAPMAN, LA C; Srikantiah, S; Subramanian, S; Jambulingam, P; Bracher, J; CAMERON, MM; MEDLEY, GF;
2020
PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES
Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.
CHAPMAN, LA C; Spencer, SE F; Pollington, TM; Jewell, CP; Mondal, D; Alvar, J; Hollingsworth, TD; CAMERON, MM; Bern, C; MEDLEY, GF;
2020
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)
Model-based estimates of transmission of respiratory syncytial virus within households.
Kombe, IK; Munywoki, PK; BAGUELIN, M; Nokes, DJ; MEDLEY, GF;
2018
Epidemics
The role of case proximity in transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in a highly endemic village in Bangladesh.
CHAPMAN, LA C; Jewell, CP; Spencer, SE F; Pellis, L; Datta, S; Chowdhury, R; Bern, C; MEDLEY, GF; Hollingsworth, TD;
2018
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy.
MEDLEY, GF; Blok, DJ; Crump, RE; Hollingsworth, TD; Galvani, AP; Ndeffo-Mbah, ML; Porco, TC; Richardus, JH;
2018
Clinical infectious diseases
When an emerging disease becomes endemic.
MEDLEY, GF; VASSALL, A;
2017
Science (New York, NY)
Uncertainty quantification in cost-effectiveness analysis for stochastic-based infectious disease models: Insights from surveillance on lymphatic filariasis
Antony Oliver, MC; Graham, M; Manolopoulou, I; MEDLEY, GF; Pellis, L; Pouwels, KB; Thorpe, M; Hollingsworth, TD;
2025
Journal of Theoretical Biology
Spatial variation in time to diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India
NIGHTINGALE, ES; Bindroo, J; Dubey, P; Priyamvada, K; Das, A; Bern, C; Srikantiah, S; Kumar, A; CAMERON, MM; Lucas, TC D; Sharma, S; MEDLEY, GF; Brady, OJ;
2025
BMC Global and Public Health
Crises and complexity: how can we make health interventions succeed?
MKRTCHYAN, Z; Moyo, Y; BOZZANI, F; INGOLD, H; MEDLEY, G; Torres-Rueda, S; Terris-Prestholt, F; GUINNESS, L; Aziz, A; Montero, AM; Foss, AM; Vassall, A; Nemzoff, C; Pitt, C; Bath, D; Terris-Prestholt, F; Bozzani, F; Ruiz, F; Medley, G; Ingold, H; Yoon, I; Mosweu, I; Sohail, J; Kazibwe, J; Tankwa, J; ... RUIZ, F.
2025
Health policy and planning
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